نویسندگان:
فاطمه حسن پور1 ، فاطمه طاهری2 ، وحید فلاح3 .1استادیار دانشکده هنر دانشگاه الزهراء، تهران، ایران
2استادیار، گروه مدیریت آموزشی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد بابل، بابل، ایران.
3استادیار، گروه مدیریت آموزشی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد بابل، بابل، ایران.
چکیده فارسی: آیندهپژوهی بهمنزلۀ یک مفهوم میانرشتهای و فرارشتهای، امکان شناسایی رویدادها و روندهای مؤثر در شکلگیری تحولات آینده و دستیابی به تصویری روشن از آینده در قلمرو مدیریت آموزشی دانشگاهها را فراهم میآورد. پژوهش حاضر مؤلفههای تأثیرگذار بر آیندهپژوهی مدیریت آموزشی مبتنی بر رویکرد پویایی رقابتی در دانشگاههای استان مازندران برمبنای تحلیل دیدگاه صاحبنظران ایرانی این حوزه است. این مطالعه به روش کیفی با استفاده از مصاحبه نیمهساختاریافته و تحلیل محتوای کیفی با رویکرد قیاسی انجام شده است. جامعۀ پژوهش شامل تمامی متخصصان و صاحبنظران عرصۀ مدیریت آموزشی و علوم تربیتی بود که در مجموع 13 نفر از آنها، به روش نمونهگیری گلوله برفی، انتخاب و آرا و نظرات آنها تجزیه و تحلیل شد. تجزیه و تحلیل داده در سه مرحله کدگذاری باز، کدگذاری محوری و کدگذاری انتخابی انجام پذیرفت. تحلیل کیفی نتایج حاصل از مصاحبه با صاحبنظران حوزۀ مدیریت آموزشی نشان داد که آیندهپژوهی مدیریت آموزشی مستلزم توجه به 11 مقولۀ اصلی و 47 زیرمقوله است. یافتههای حاصل از مصاحبهها نشان داده است که رویکرد آینده پژوهی مدیریت آموزشی مبتنی بر مدیریت آموزشی به عنوان مقولۀ شرایط علی(کادر هیئت علمی مجرب، تنوع برنامههای آموزشی و پژوهشی، گسترش پژوهشهای کاربردی، تعامل دانشگاه با صنایع، برنامۀ درسی انعطافپذیر و کاربردی)، عوامل زمینهای (ضرورت تفکر در مورد آینده بهعنوان یک عمل تربیتی، امکانات آموزشی متعدد، ارتباطات اجتماعی مناسب)، شرایط مداخلهگر (داشتن مهارتهای منتقدانه و تفسیری از آینده، وجود سیاست توانمندسازی و آشنایی استادان و دانشجویان با شاخصهای آیندهنگری)، راهبردها (توانمندسازی منابع انسانی، توسعۀ ظرفیتهای آموزشی و پژوهشی و استفاده از روشهای گوناگون تدریس) و پیامدها (ارائۀ عملکرد فعالانه در برابر رویدادهای آموزشی، ارتقای یادگیری مادامالعمر، در نظر گرفتن دانشجویان بهعنوان سرمایۀ اجتماعی، ارزیابی و تجدید نظر منظم) مطرح گردید.
Identifying the components affecting the futures studies of educational management based on the competitive dynamics approach in Mazandaran Province universities: A qualitative analysis based on the views of experts
English Abstract: Futures research is an interdisciplinary and holistic concept that provides the opportunity to identify trends that affect upcoming developments and projects a clear image of the future in the educational management of universities. This research aims to identify the components affecting the futures research of educational management based on the competitive dynamics approach and the views of Iranian experts in Mazandaran Province universities. We used semi-structured interviews and qualitative content analysis with a deductive approach. The statistical population included all experts in Educational Management and Educational Sciences. A total of 13 participants were selected by snowball sampling and their opinions were analyzed. Data was analyzed through three stages of open coding, axial coding, and selective coding. The qualitative analysis of interviews conducted with the experts of educational management showed that the futures research of educational management requires focus on 11 main categories and 47 subcategories. Causal conditions, contextual factors, confounding factors, strategies, and outcomes emerged from the interviews as components of futures research of educational management. Introduction Universities are an integral part of the educational system and one of the most important factors in shaping the future of the world. The drastic changes impacting the world of higher education today have placed the goals, programs, and orientations of universities increasingly under the spotlight (Alagheband, 2018). A review of how higher education has evolved, from the establishment of the first university in the 13th century to date, shows that higher education has always been a dynamic, evolving institution, constantly changing in line with changes in social, cultural, and epistemological infrastructures (Ghasemzadeh, 2017). Studies show that a university can progress and excel by creating the required structures and equipping its human resources with the knowledge and skills of productive entrepreneurship to manage and guide other resources in the community and institution towards creating value and achieving growth and development through these valuable capabilities (Henderson et al., 2019). Research in educational management, both academic and non-academic, is mainly focused on individuals, learning, and its impact on their performance in various organizations and situations (Buhering and Bishop, 2020). The category of competitive advantage consists of the two subcategories of development and production of science. Each of these subcategories refers to the upshots that universities and research centers face in expanding their research commercialization activities (Ghasemzadeh, 2017). Another subcategory classified under the category of achieving competitive advantage is the production of science (Sayyah and Asadi, 2015). Images of the future demonstrate a collective awareness of the formation of identity, behavior, ethics, and decision-making; at times, this is equated with concepts such as forecasts, expectations, and hopes and fears (Son, 2013). In other words, people either try to fall in line with what they believe will happen, or else build the future they desire (Bell, 2018: 173). Futures research exhibits aspects of the future which can be defined collectively (Charkhab, Hosseini and Nassiri, 2020). Studies have shown that dynamism in an organization facilitates acceptance of change in the organization, which leads to higher innovation performance, which in turn makes the organization more adaptable to the external environment (McKinnon and Hughes, 2013). Keeping this in mind, although the importance of futures research in higher education has been mentioned in numerous texts and researches, it has been less addressed in line with the competitive dynamics approach. Therefore, the present study used the qualitative analysis method to identify the components and indicators of futures research in educational management based on the competitive dynamics approach from the perspective of experts in Iran. Based on these results, it can suggest the necessary solutions to curriculum planners and policymakers to move towards a more competent educational management system. Methodology This research is classified as qualitative research and a case study with an exploratory-descriptive approach. The statistical population of the research included all experts in educational management and educational sciences. Twenty-five elite members from among university chancellors and deputies, department deans, and faculty members in Mazandaran Province were selected as participants by homogeneous purposive sampling, of whom 13 agreed to be interviewed. The study was conducted at the work place of the faculty members in universities, and offices of the other participants. Each interview lasted 25-30 minutes. The interviews were transferred to MAXQD 2018 and coded. Results In this section, we will present the findings of data analysis from the interviews in terms of causal conditions, strategies, confounding factors, contextual factors, and outcomes. Causal conditions According to the data obtained from the analysis of interviews, causal conditions affecting the futures research of educational management with a competitive approach are the employment of top professors, diversity in educational and research activities, development of applied research based on the needs of the province (localization), interaction among universities, industries, and organizations in the province, and planning for new, popular disciplines at the postgraduate level. Strategies We found three major strategies for the implementation of futures research in educational management based on competitive dynamics: empowering human resources, developing new educational and research capacities, and scientific and practical development of entrepreneurship. Confounding factors Data analysis led to the emergence of different components of confounding factors in three general categories: having critical and interpretive skills for the future, having empowerment policies for students and professors, and familiarizing professors with the indicators of futures research. Contextual factors By contextual factors, we mean a collection of special circumstances which come together at a specific time and location to create a set of situations to which individuals respond to with specific actions and interactions. Outcomes The outcomes of futures research in educational management based on competitive dynamics and its effective implementation can be categorized as considering students as a social capital, promoting lifelong learning, providing active performance in educational events, using innovations in education, setting goals for the university, and effective planning for the future. Discussion and conclusion Studies have shown that futures research in educational management is still an unknown, evolving territory which, relatively speaking, has been left out of research. Therefore, the principles of futures research have not been examined much in educational management. The findings of the present research show that the presence of experienced professors specializing in this field is one of the most important causal conditions in the futures research of educational management. Professors familiar with different languages who have academic-executive experience, special skills, and new specialties can mobilize educational management and change the educational-research structure. According to Marzoughi et al. (2013), the teaching methods of professors directly affect the futures research of students. Parish et al. (2016) believe that the discussion topic in the education system today is to prepare students for future employment in order to achieve their professional goals and be accountable in their social responsibilities. Achieving these goals requires quality teaching and knowledge-based learning with an eye to the future. In his study, Hicks (2002) forecast the educational goals for future action to include forecasting change, defining values, motivation, decision-making, critical thinking, creative imagination, a better world, and citizenship (Bussi, 2016). According to Valvi et al. (2016), weak critical thinking skills in graduate students indicate poor performance of higher education in its curricula and teaching-learning methods to nurture students with critical thinking. If higher education seeks to train people with a critical mind, it must review the educational system. All the studies are consistent with the research findings.